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دخول الأرشيف:
9783639407556 - Beck Dominik: Evaluating Probability Forecasts - كتاب

(?):

Evaluating Probability Forecasts (2014) (?)

التسليم من: الولايات المتحدة الأمريكيةكتاب الألمانيةهذا كتاب الجيبكتاب جديد
ISBN:

9783639407556 (?) أو 3639407555

, في الألمانية, BLUES KIDS OF AMER 01/10/2014, غلاف عادي, الجديد
New Book. This item is printed on demand. Shipped from US This item is printed on demand.
البيانات من 19/10/2014 03:05h
ISBN (الرموز البديلة): 3-639-40755-5, 978-3-639-40755-6
دخول الأرشيف:
9783639407556 - Dominik Beck: Evaluating Probability Forecasts - كتاب

(?):

Evaluating Probability Forecasts (2014) (?)

التسليم من: ألمانياكتاب الألمانيةهذا كتاب الجيبكتاب جديدطبع
ISBN:

9783639407556 (?) أو 3639407555

, في الألمانية, Av Akademikerverlag Mrz 2014, غلاف عادي, الجديد, طبع
This item is printed on demand - Print on Demand Titel. Neuware - Forecasting is of utmost importance in statistics. Besides the very popular point forecasts, there are probability forecasts which naturally incorporate the uncertainty associated with a prediction. Probability forecasts have first been used in meteorology, however, applications are manifold, e.g. in economics the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In order to determine 'good' probability forecasts, the concepts of sharpness and calibration are introduced. Calibration which is the statistical consistency between the forecasts and the observations, is assessed by the Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Sharpness measures the extent to which a probabilistic forecast is spread out and is assessed on the basis of so called scoring rules. These scoring rules are introduced along with some properties, the most important being (strict) propriety. Different scoring rules are introduced such as the quadratic score, the log score or the Ranked Probability Score. The empirical analysis is based on the SPF dataset. In addition to the single forecasts of the participants to the SPF, linear and logarithmic combinations with different weighting schemes of these single forecasts are analysed. Finally, statistical tests for equal predictice power in the sense of the well-known Diebold-Mariano test of these combinations are introduced and used to search for the best combination scheme. 92 pp. Englisch
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البيانات من 19/10/2014 03:05h
ISBN (الرموز البديلة): 3-639-40755-5, 978-3-639-40755-6
دخول الأرشيف:
9783639407556 - Beck Dominik: Evaluating Probability Forecasts - كتاب

(?):

Evaluating Probability Forecasts (2012) (?)

التسليم من: ألمانياكتاب الألمانيةهذا كتاب الجيبكتاب جديدطبع
ISBN:

9783639407556 (?) أو 3639407555

, في الألمانية, AV Akademikerverlag, غلاف عادي, الجديد, طبع
This item is printed on demand for shipment within 3 working days.
البيانات من 19/10/2014 03:05h
ISBN (الرموز البديلة): 3-639-40755-5, 978-3-639-40755-6
دخول الأرشيف:
9783639407556 - Beck Dominik: Evaluating Probability Forecasts - كتاب

(?):

Evaluating Probability Forecasts (2014) (?)

التسليم من: ألمانياكتاب الألمانيةهذا كتاب الجيبكتاب جديد
ISBN:

9783639407556 (?) أو 3639407555

, في الألمانية, BLUES KIDS OF AMER 01/10/2014, غلاف عادي, الجديد
New Book. Shipped from UK. This item is printed on demand.
البيانات من 19/10/2014 03:05h
ISBN (الرموز البديلة): 3-639-40755-5, 978-3-639-40755-6
دخول الأرشيف:
9783639407556 - Beck, Dominik: Evaluating Probability Forecasts - كتاب

(?):

Evaluating Probability Forecasts (?)

التسليم من: ألمانياكتاب الألمانيةهذا كتاب الجيبكتاب جديد
ISBN:

9783639407556 (?) أو 3639407555

, في الألمانية, Av Akademikerverlag, غلاف عادي, الجديد
Forecasting is of utmost importance in statistics. Besides the very popular point forecasts, there are probability forecasts which naturally incorporate the uncertainty associated with a prediction. Probability forecasts have first been used in meteorology, however, applications are manifold, e.g. in economics the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In order to determine "good" probability forecasts, the concepts of sharpness and calibration are introduced. Calibration which is the statistical consistency between the forecasts and the observations, is assessed by the Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Sharpness measures the extent to which a probabilistic forecast is spread out and is assessed on the basis of so called scoring rules. These scoring rules are introduced along with some properties, the most important being (strict) propriety. Different scoring rules are introduced such as the quadratic score, the log score or the Ranked Probability Score. The empirical analysis is based on the SPF dataset. In addition to the single forecasts of the participants to the SPF, linear and logarithmic combinations with different weighting schemes of these single forecasts are analysed. Finally, statistical tests for equal predictice power in the sense of the well-known Diebold-Mariano test of these combinations are introduced and used to search for the best combination scheme.92 S. 220 mmVersandfertig in 3-5 Tagen, Softcover
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البيانات من 24/09/2015 16:49h
ISBN (الرموز البديلة): 3-639-40755-5, 978-3-639-40755-6

9783639407556

البحث عن جميع الكتب المتوفرة لرقم ISBN الخاص بك 9783639407556 مقارنة الأسعار في سرعة وسهولة والنظام فورا.

الكتب النادرة المتاحة والكتب المستخدمة والكتب من جهة ثانية للعنوان "Evaluating Probability Forecasts: Theory and Application to Macroeconomic Survey Data" من Beck, Dominik يتم سرد تماما.

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